I believe there are 2 more likely distinct possibilities showing up in the models...the eastern route along MS gulf coast towards mobile or the western along FL Panhandle. 00z models will tell all imo as we are closing in on that crucial 72 hour window. If the models hold to a western solution then it will be the time to start getting concerned and make preparations. Keep in mind, those not in access to a weather forum like this wouldn't become aware of a shift until the morning.
Yeap, I agree, within 72 hrs is when the models do the best, good example was the 12z models 8-26-05
For me it was Hurricane Audrey in '57. As a young boy I remember our house coming apart and holding on to my dad on the roof of our house. We fought snakes, rain, high wind, and that floating roof. We lost my youngest sister that horrible night. Long ago, yet it seems like only yesterday.
In 1957, I was incubating - only half done ;D
In 1957, I was a zygote. Hee hee..I crack myself up!
Post by allicat1214 on Aug 25, 2012 21:14:03 GMT -6
Bryan Norcross on his FB page tonight:
Isaac is on track tonight, and the center should be in the vicinity of the Key West tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon. The tropical core is embedded in a huge rotating circulation that extends hundreds of miles across, which has been a distinguishing feature of Isaac since its pre-depression days. This is why warnings and watches have been posted for most of the Florida peninsula.
The strength of Isaac when it gets to the Keys in tricky. In favor of strengthening: it's over very warm water, moving away from land, strong thunderstorms are wrapping around the center, and the upper air is moderately okay. Working against it: big circulations intensify more slowly, part of the circulation is over land, thunderstorms have developed each night and weakened, and the upper air is only moderately okay. It's likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it gets to the Keys, but no rapid intensification is expected.
This storm brings back memories of Hurricane Georges in 1998, though Georges was a bit stronger and more organized when it ran into eastern Cuba. The center went over Key West as a Cat 2, and pushed damaging storm surge against the Keys. Folks in the Keys should be ready for a Georges-type event, and hope Isaac doesn't get that strong, which it probably won't.
Then there's the storm surge forecast for the Florida west coast. Storm surge science is excellent. Given a certain intensity, track, and radius of maximum winds... the surge in affected locations can be forecast accurately. The problem is, you rarely know those things very far in advance, and slight differences in any of the parameters can make a big difference in the surge.
The NHC is forecasting a worst case of 5 to 7 feet of surge on the southwest Florida coast and 3 to 5 feet in and around Tampa Bay. If the storm arrives at high tide, and the storm intensifies as forecast, these worst-case values could be reached. That's seriously high water for low-lying areas near the water, of which there are many. This is a potentially very dangerous situation.
But, as discussed yesterday, if the storm takes just the right (wrong) track, like Hurricane Dennis in 2005, a wave can set up in the shelf water accentuating the surge along the west coast and even more so in the Panhandle. This will have to be watched very closely. Again, little variations and it doesn't happen. Here's a simulation from the NHC that shows Dennis' surge-enhancing wave develop over the coastal shelf and travel north. www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/images/2005Dennis.g if
And then there's landfall. The trend in the computer forecast models has been to move west toward Mississippi and Louisiana, with the European now the outlier to the east. Previously it was the outlier to the west. This is why the cone is wide at 3 days out.
There is a big high pressure system over the Rockies and Plains that is forecast by the American GFS model to build across the South just as Isaac gets near the northern Gulf coast. That blocks the storm and pushes it westward. The European doesn't build the high as strongly or quickly east. Normally we would trust the European model for atmospheric-pattern forecasts, but it's been especially flakey this year, so we take the average as a good forecast, and admit that we don't know.
The NHC is forecasting a Cat 2 storm at landfall on the northern Gulf coast, but it's easy to see how things could come together to make it much stronger. Everybody from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should be on alert. Pay attention... and be prepared!
See you tomorrow on The Weather Channel.
SKYSUMMITPresident | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Well my first experience with hurricanes was as a very young boy in the early 50's in Norco. Back then everyone evacuated to the old school on Apple st. Scary times but have survived Betsy, Camille, and Katrina.
Post by dolfinatic on Aug 25, 2012 21:16:45 GMT -6
IMO, and this is just an opinion but from what I can see and know watching these storms for a good 30 years. Looking at the upper pattern I find it hard to believe that he will miss the trough. He may however get caught up in trough and then later get left behind, which some of the models have been eluding to. But if that happend then we have a stalling cane and really wont know where it goes. It really depends on strength and timing of the trough and the timing of the storm when the 2 meet. My feeling is models will shift back in morning runs to east again. I still think this is a fl panhandle storm. Which by the way the models had been very consistent on until the past 2 runs. Regardless folks, we are talking about a huge circulation and effects are going to be felt for a large distance either way from this storm. Just my amatuer take on this storm at the present time, and it could change at any moment like the models have been changing each run. LOL
SKYSUMMITPresident | Director of OperationsAdministrator
LEAD BUYER'S AGENT - BWL Group of Keller Williams, Visit my site at www.guidryrealty.com and like us on FB @bwlgrouprealestateteam
CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11
NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member President | Director of Operations - Gulf Coast Weather
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6