Good evening and Good morning...I'm going to keep this brief given it's early morning at my house and the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are split this evening as many of you are well aware of. Looking at the 26/00Z upper charts it is quite evident what the GFS ensemble is looking at; the narrow ridge axis that was depicted at 25/12Z from off the coast of central LA to Orlando, FL then ENE into the AO to the Bermuda upper ridge has built and strengthened by 20 meters everywhere and the longwave trough over the east has lifted out quite nicely and everything south of Charleston is inverted now and winds are from the NE aloft at 500 millibars. I went hunting for this low/mid level low NHC mentioned in their 11 pm discussion; darn if I could find it though I did pick up a surface trough...possible positive tilt shortwave along generally a west to east then northeast then north and northwest into Issac where thunderstorms are firing. I can find no definitive data to indicate what Issac is to do once in the Gulf of Mexico nor am I going to speculate where and when. Right now, the westward shift is viable if this ridge axis and multiple upper centers remains in place; however, the model have been insistent about retrograding the upper ridge west and progressing the shortwave in the middle of the country and deepening once again the long wave trough along the eastern US and what remains is all timing as to what will be where and when and the ensembles are simply split; the irony is it is now the ECMWF and its ensemble implying recurvature and sending the cyclone into northern FL coast and the GFS advertising a date with New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast; opposite from a couple of days ago. I see no evidence on satellite imagery this evening that Issac will undergo rapid intensification soon; the southern half of the cyclone is void of convection and over land, over Cuba. The long wave trough at 200/300 millibars extends south through the peninsula of FL then exiting SW FL into the GOM...wind shear analysis continues to show 30 knots from the SW aloft over convection over FL, Florida Straits near the Keys decreasing to 10 knots to near the center of Issac; overall shear is decreasing in velocity. One note, I do not input data from previous or similar tropical storms and/or hurricanes; while there may be similarities the bottom line is the data in the here and now and the data inputted into the models and their respective ensembles is unique to that storm. Only in regards to climatology what a storm's track and strength are relevant; tropical cyclones present themselves in an incredible number of personalities, flavors, hybrids and structures just to name a few; we have much to learn as why one storm does this and another with the same "ingredients" does another. Issac thus far has been a bit like the family black sheep; different!
coffeecups: Anyone here besides me and Sky?
Apr 27, 2017 8:34:33 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6