Good evening and Good morning...I'm going to keep this brief given it's early morning at my house and the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are split this evening as many of you are well aware of. Looking at the 26/00Z upper charts it is quite evident what the GFS ensemble is looking at; the narrow ridge axis that was depicted at 25/12Z from off the coast of central LA to Orlando, FL then ENE into the AO to the Bermuda upper ridge has built and strengthened by 20 meters everywhere and the longwave trough over the east has lifted out quite nicely and everything south of Charleston is inverted now and winds are from the NE aloft at 500 millibars. I went hunting for this low/mid level low NHC mentioned in their 11 pm discussion; darn if I could find it though I did pick up a surface trough...possible positive tilt shortwave along generally a west to east then northeast then north and northwest into Issac where thunderstorms are firing. I can find no definitive data to indicate what Issac is to do once in the Gulf of Mexico nor am I going to speculate where and when. Right now, the westward shift is viable if this ridge axis and multiple upper centers remains in place; however, the model have been insistent about retrograding the upper ridge west and progressing the shortwave in the middle of the country and deepening once again the long wave trough along the eastern US and what remains is all timing as to what will be where and when and the ensembles are simply split; the irony is it is now the ECMWF and its ensemble implying recurvature and sending the cyclone into northern FL coast and the GFS advertising a date with New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast; opposite from a couple of days ago. I see no evidence on satellite imagery this evening that Issac will undergo rapid intensification soon; the southern half of the cyclone is void of convection and over land, over Cuba. The long wave trough at 200/300 millibars extends south through the peninsula of FL then exiting SW FL into the GOM...wind shear analysis continues to show 30 knots from the SW aloft over convection over FL, Florida Straits near the Keys decreasing to 10 knots to near the center of Issac; overall shear is decreasing in velocity. One note, I do not input data from previous or similar tropical storms and/or hurricanes; while there may be similarities the bottom line is the data in the here and now and the data inputted into the models and their respective ensembles is unique to that storm. Only in regards to climatology what a storm's track and strength are relevant; tropical cyclones present themselves in an incredible number of personalities, flavors, hybrids and structures just to name a few; we have much to learn as why one storm does this and another with the same "ingredients" does another. Issac thus far has been a bit like the family black sheep; different!
So again we are back to which is right? Euro or GFS??
SKYSUMMIT: I'm thinking this hurricane season will keep us a little busy. Nothing scientific, but just the idea that it really hasn't been hyped that much.
May 23, 2017 21:01:18 GMT -6
coffeecups: Guess I better take the sandbags!
May 23, 2017 14:31:18 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Sandbags and squirt cheese
May 22, 2017 20:46:04 GMT -6
coffeecups: Only a week and a half until tropical season!
May 20, 2017 11:12:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: I remember when the temps for May got into the 90's.
May 19, 2017 21:39:50 GMT -6
coffeecups: For the month of May, this weather has been more like April (except for the rain).
May 19, 2017 21:38:52 GMT -6
PinkFreud: No offense to whomever keeps changing the look of this forum, but this white theme is driving me crazy. What happened to the nice blues and grays?
May 17, 2017 23:51:41 GMT -6
coffeecups: That 'some rain on Friday' became a tornado about 3 miles away (as the crow flies). What a surprise! Glad I didn't have any flooding!
May 14, 2017 10:47:58 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, other than maybe some rain on Friday, we may be in a dry stretch.
May 6, 2017 10:08:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Thanks Sky, looks like good weather for me.
May 5, 2017 21:03:01 GMT -6
coffeecups: I AM very fortunate that I didn't flood last night.
May 4, 2017 12:37:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mother Mary took care of my property again. Even the cat's food and water were by the door instead of floating to the drain. AMAZING!
May 4, 2017 12:35:23 GMT -6
coffeecups: Good to hear from you Sky. Is anyone else here??????
May 1, 2017 21:22:36 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Actually Coffee..I haven't been around that much either. At least not nearly as much as I used to. Work has been extremely busy! It's a busy busy time in real estate
Apr 30, 2017 21:06:22 GMT -6
coffeecups: Anyone here besides me and Sky?
Apr 27, 2017 8:34:33 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6