I really need this stupid storm to stay east of us. I'm putting off making a decision about my company until the morning. My office isn't far at all from the lake in Mandeville. I'm not concerned about wind or water, I'm concerned about power. If I don't have power at the office, I cannot operate. I live just south of I-12 in Madisonville and so my plan A is to have my "hurricane crew" come here to work assuming I keep power and my plan B is to head to Lafayette. Obviously the further I have to go, the bigger chance I face of disruption and interruption of business. BIG SIGH....I hate this crap.
SKYSUMMITPresident | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Post by hurricaner on Aug 26, 2012 15:02:45 GMT -6
Isaac now going WNW at 295deg. so more westward motion.
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
...CENTER OF ISAAC PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 82.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THERE IS STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SYSTEM...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE...AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
Excellent job at the press conference by Jindal. Although he can irk me sometimes, when there is a storm threatening LA, there's no one I want in the Governor's chair more than he. He knows how to work problems like this.
"My name is Jim, but my friends call me...............Jim."
Post by cplay12671 on Aug 26, 2012 15:05:48 GMT -6
OHHH BOB, he just thinks this is not a big deal at all, he say he is going with his VIPR model, Why does he say that knowing that it is not a good tropical model and knowing all of the other models are west of his VIPR............
Swarm of over 50 earthquakes is ongoing in S. California near the Salton Sea. Most were minor; largest was 5.3 in San Diego.. Wow...
Back to Isaac....
Thank God for St. Charles for closing schools Mon-Wed and letting us get out of dodge. Because of that, we are leaving tonight. Will be going to Lafayette. I know it's in the path per GFS but that's where I made ressies and that's where my son is. Hotel is 43' above sea level, no trees, near banks, walmart, walgreens, and my daughter's favorite: Starbucks!
Know we're likely to get bad weather and wind....just running from water. Slosh model for my area is 10' for a slow moving Category 2....
Yall be safe everyone...
Slosh showed 18' in Ama for Gustav, never materialized and we had a harrowing Gustav evacuation. We are staying put for this one. Sturdy brink house with escape hatch roof on second floor. Water, groceries, and generator. We are good to go!
If I were in Ama, I'd might stay too. But I'm in Willowdale and my husband is leaving town for who knows how long. I'm not gonna stay in this house with just me and my daughter and my dog with water coming up behind me... we already have standing water just now in woods behind us.
Interesting that they do not forecast it to become a hurricane until tomorrow night, I guess they think all the dry air to the SW of the system will keep him at Bay until the dry air mixes out, heck, it may only be a Cat 1 at landfall if the dry air does not leave.
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6