Interesting write up today from Firsthand Weather (on Facebook) about the upcoming potential for Christmas.
This may sound weird to you, but I am more confident about a winter storm developing on or around Christmas Eve or Christmas Day than I am regarding the potential storm that I just discussed above. The reason for this is that our pattern is going to likely flip right around Christmas, and the overall pattern is going to support cold across the central and eastern United States. The necessary blocking is going to start to set up over the regions that I mentioned in the beginning of this article, and that in return is going to favor storminess across the southern states and up the East Coast. Any energy that develops and moves into California will then be in a favorable environment further east to develop and strength. Under such an active pattern, you can have northern pieces of energy phase with southern pieces of energy. In simple terms, when you have two smaller systems combine into one big system, you get a stronger system.
Once again, another storm system is supposed to move into California before Christmas and track eastward. Again, the overall pattern will support this system staying south, and even if it were not to phase exactly right with a northern branch system, areas across the Southern U.S. has the potential to get snow and/or ice around Christmas.
This is the second system that could bring a big winter storm on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. Notice the first pre-Christmas storm system on the East Coast.
From what I can tell, I see this potentially being a big winter storm for the Gulf Coast states and eventually up the East Coast on Christmas Eve/Day or right around then. Even the Southern Plains need to keep an eye on this system before it moves east, but my primary focus is on the Gulf Coast states and East Coast. The track of this system and the amount of cold air available (which could be plenty sufficient) would support wintry weather pretty far south. No, if you’re in Miami, FL, I’m not saying you’re getting snow, but what I am saying is that some regions that hardly ever have a White Christmas could get one this year.
Please understand that just because you’re in the South doesn’t mean you’re going to get snow or ice on Christmas. The goal of this article is to make you aware that the overall pattern favors a White Christmas for many. Some of the methods that I use to come up with my forecasts (that don’t rely on model guidance) also is strongly hinting at a winter storm around Christmas. Right now, everything seems like it could come together.
The details will become more fine-tuned as we get closer to each potential system. My goal is to always make you aware that there are certain limitations in weather forecasting, but I’m not going to sit here and keep all of this to myself just because we’re still a decent ways out. I hope this article gave you a good understanding of what is going on, and why I am making these predictions. If there is enough interest, I may come out with one of those “what are your chances of seeing a White Christmas” maps sometime this week. Let me know if that’s something that would interest you.
I’ll continue to keep you updated on the latest through this site. I will be putting out daily updates on Facebook and Twitter, so be sure to like and follow both of those pages. It’s important that you
coffeecups: Anyone here besides me and Sky?
Apr 27, 2017 8:34:33 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6