The ECMWF MSLP forecast for July,August and September looks even worse.Even the BOC that many times systems form there is not favorable. We will know in the next few months if the EC is right or not.Mother nature will rule whatever occurs this summer but the "It only takes one " words come to the forefront if a below average season pans out.
Post by weatherboyy on Mar 18, 2015 22:52:17 GMT -6
Bob Breck WVUE
1 hr · .
Hurricane Season Predictions
I know, we still have nearly 2 ½ months to go, but the numbers are coming out. Reading Jeff Masters’ (Weatherunderground) & Joe Bastardi’s (WeatherBell Analytics) blogs virtually agree that the 2015 season will be “below average” (7-9 named storms) with 1-2 major. Joey B. says above normal central Gulf waters might focus early season activity on the Gulf of Mexico? He believes our 10 year streak of no landfalling major (Cat.3 +) storm will end. That is a fairly safe prediction since the law of averages starts to factor in. Dr. Masters believes a strengthening El Nino will curtail the number of storms. But does any of that matter? I have always felt the early hurricane predictions are rather useless since they 1) have shown limited skill and 2) (more importantly) can’t tell where or when. I like the idea of below average numbers, but we have to prepare regardless of numbers. I’m too old to worry about the Hurricane Season until it arrives.
In the short term, our early Spring preview will continue with highs 80+ through Saturday. A weak front will get close tomorrow giving us a slim shower chance. The best rain chances will arrive Saturday night into Sunday with the possibility of some T-Storms. That’s when another upper disturbance will approach. Stay tuned! The Spring Equinox occurs at 5:45 PM on Friday. Bob Breck
Post by weatherboyy on Mar 21, 2015 14:20:38 GMT -6
Hurricane Season Outlook
March 18 04:08 AM
March 15, 2015
Issued Premium March 18 •Another low ACE year in the Main Development Region •In-close development biggest problem •Abnormally warm central Gulf of Mexico enhances threat of major U.S. hit
Forecast •Named Storms: 7-9 •Hurricanes 3-5 •Major Hurricanes: 1-2 •ACE 65-80% of normal
The overall season seems fairly straightforward. It is highly likely that the ramped-up number of storms and ACE era is fading as the Gray/Klotzbach long -running AMO, which I think is the gold standard of the AMO index, is now heading to the negative phase. The NOAA measurement, while backing off is not quite there yet:
SST forecasts and pressures on the ECMWF are the kiss of death for the threat of even an average season in the Main Development region. Like last year, we are emphasizing a less than average threat to areas south of 22.5°N.
ECMWF SSTA Forecast:
This is the kiss of death as it implies lower than normal pressures over the Pacific and northwestern South America, enhanced (and a strongly hostile) western Caribbean Index (my research), with greater than average pressure differences between Northwestern South America and Jamaica. This implies stronger than normal easterlies west of 50*W and net sinking in the tropical Atlantic basin.
The ECMWF pressure forecast shows higher than normal pressure expected:
The ECMWF rainfall forecast:
These both echo the theme that below normal activity should be expected.
However, the problem is the SST near the U.S. coast. The current SSTA pattern:
This features a very warm central Gulf of Mexico. I am also trusting the models warming the water off western South America.
As it stands now this is a look for an average ACE season, but is really one where you forecast more landfalling storms as a % , as the region of greatest convergence (given this SST pattern) would be in the western Atlantic basin. Any cold water is assumed to warm. If it does not, then the landfall threat, which I think is greater than average anyway in spite a smaller than average ACE, would be even greater.
The current map off the West Coast of South America is a favorable signal, reminiscent of weak ENSO3.4 warm events like 1969 and 2004 that produced bigger hits. That being said, the cold AMO ring and the cold off Africa is instantly a negative.
In any case, the seasons with hurricanes in the major energy areas of the Gulf had an average March SST like this:
The closeup of the Gulf as it stands now should open your eyes:
Last year we had a good forecast, though for it to have been what I objectively needed was one more hit on the U.S. East Coast. It turned out the congregation of storms occurred about 300 miles farther east than what our forecast was.
Overall intensity should be close to last year.
The common thread is that the farther north we are, the greater the intensity relative to normal. So this is not a "lah de dah" season.
The impact map will be out by mid April. My gut feeling is the shift will be to the west this year as we cannot ignore the early season Gulf of Mexico above normal SSTs.
I think the threat of major hit is higher than average on the U.S. coast, and the energy areas of the Gulf of Mexico are in that boat.
In addition, I will now use the power/impact scale to add to the Saffir-Simpson scale to give you a better idea of the overall strength of the storm. This incorporates pressure and pressure tendency as a metric. On my scale, for instance, both Gustav and Ike were major hurricanes and Sandy was borderline major as the size of the storm compounds problems as much as a "1-minute maximum wind speed" which may be confined to a small area. I think by both standards, the major hit drought will come to an end this year, even though the ACE may be lower than normal. The fact is that the big worry, like an Alicia or Charley, will be relatively small size storms that will deepen until landfall.
A map of risk assessment will be provided in April. by Joe Bastardi
SKYSUMMITPresident | Director of OperationsAdministrator
I'm sure it will be the first of many come August. Not sure I'm ready for it. Just watching the trailer kinda took me back to a place I'm not crazy about going. Ahhhhhh what the hell..........I'll deal.
"My name is Jim, but my friends call me...............Jim."
I totally agree with you nolasim! I watched this and I got chills.. this was such a dark time for New Orleans and I always hold my breath each year and wonder if this will happen again. Scary thought but have to be prepared. Thanks for all that you all do in this forum. It has helped save many many lives!!!
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6