Post by SCOT PILIE' on Apr 6, 2015 22:32:00 GMT -6
Water Temps 3-6 degrees above average in the Central Gulf of Mexico. We will see how the temps change over the next two months. The start of the season is only 55 days away! Could be interesting for some early season, homegrown development.
Post by SCOT PILIE' on Apr 20, 2015 10:42:54 GMT -6
Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico continue to run about 3-6 degrees above average. We are now 41 days out from the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. In contrast, check out the Caribbean. Temperatures running near to slightly below average. weatherboyy posted the forecasted/anticipated shear analysis map. With above average temps in the Gulf & forecasted below average shear in the Gulf, we will definitely need to keep our eyes peeled for sagging frontal boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico in late May, June, July. We haven't had much homegrown "pop up storms" in the past several years. The last one I vividly remember was Humberto in 2007.
Post by weatherboyy on Apr 20, 2015 22:54:22 GMT -6
•There is no change to the totals from the March forecast. •This updates tries to home in on the greatest threat area for this season.by Joe Bastardi – Chief Forecaster
Forecast •Named Storms: 7-9 •Hurricanes 3-5 •Major Hurricanes: 1-2 •ACE 65-80% of normal
Note: Anything in the 50% has to be scored in the 75% too, so, that is the reasoning in the overlapping areas. The targeted area is shifted west from last year to include major energy zones. The lack of ACE in the Main Development Region is highlighted.
Last year, the forecast centered the congregation of tracks near the East Coast. One landfalling storm, Arthur, was the strongest ever to hit that far north so early in the season, a testament to the warm water off the East Coast. The two major hurricanes (in fact all the storms except for Tropical Storm Dolly in the western Gulf of Mexico) reached their maximum intensity within the targeted area.
While not as good as the 2012 forecast, it showed far more skill than 2013's. That being said, the lack of activity in 2013 helped us track down the 1917-18 winter as a top analog, as there was an astoundingly close setup with the Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns.
I am noting this because I believe tropical cyclones are in large part due to the entire global pattern. However, this year is one of those stand-alone type years because of the extremity of the warm water near the coast. The local patterns at the particular time when there is a development threat will be huge this year, rather than the large-scale pattern.
The overall pattern in the Main Development areas of the Atlantic is brutally hostile - warm water north of cold. The evolving El Niño is a big factor, but we have had El Niños like 1969 and 2004 that had big ACE years (this has to do with a 400mb mixing ratio theory I have, which I will not bore you with now).
This picture favors lower than normal pressures north of 25°N and higher than normal pressure in the tropics (negative features for tropical activity).
of the hostility in the global patterns can be seen currently over India. There, it is raining early this spring and this is forecasted to continue. This is not a sign of a healthy monsoon. Instead, it usually means the monsoon comes on late. To continue this missive, if we assume that each year, there are a certain amount of tropical waves that traverse the tropical oceans, the cool water in the Southwestern North Pacific (with warm water in ENSO 4) implies a great deal of convergence in the Main Development of the Western Pacific. A lot of westerly moving waves there will accomplish the "goal" of the tropical season (to correct hemispheric heat imbalances by moving energy from the Tropics to the Poles). A big Western Pacific year is in store, and this rarely pairs with a big Atlantic year.
However the U.S. is not in the Deep Tropics. A close-up of the U.S. coast reveals big problems with the SST pattern That looks like a great Gulf of Mexico warm "Loop Current" and that is a signature for strong storms there.
So far this year, the Western Pacific ACE is off to the fastest start since 1958. That is the big problem for me. Hemispherically, the closest overall pattern this year in both the Pacific and Atlantic is the late 1950s. In spite of the coming moderate El Niño event, 1957 produced Category 4 Hurricane Audrey in the Gulf of Mexico in June and the vastly under-known Helene in 1958 was a powerful Category 4 that came within 10 miles of Cape Fear (North Carolina was in the eyewall, but that is not a technical landfall).
Dr. Ryan Maue made a good point after Dr. Klotzbach (from CSU), who I think is great (we use the Gray/Klotzbach AMO), came out with an ACE forecast of 40. Dr. Maue said that one "fish storm" (big hurricane that meanders in the Atlantic north of 30°N and jacks up the ACE can blow that out of the water. He beat me for a steak dinner in 2012 because of three of them did that! That being said I can see 40% normal ACE being achieved (the ECMWF is 50%).
The WeatherBell forecast is 65-80% of normal ACE. The old man (me) knows 1957 and 1958. I know Audrey and Helene. Helene (1958) comes ashore and it's a legend instead of something many of you may have never heard of.
The huge message is this. Unlike last year, the Gulf of Mexico is open for business. I would be surprised, given the cycle we are in and the warmth of the water, if there is no major impact storm (by my scale) or major even by NHC's Saffir-Simpson scale this year. Once within 200 miles of the U.S. coast, the El Niño and harsh Main Development Region conditions don't mean anything.
I fear a scenario like the late 1950s. Audrey in the Gulf of Mexico and Helene in the Carolinas. There is no assurance you can't have two similar storms in one year, nor an assurance that one shows up and gets driven into New England. There is far greater confidence in the lower than normal idea farther to the south. The entire season may have us asleep 75% of time, but the 25% of the time we have to be awake, it may lead to great wailing and gnashing of teeth.
I respect NHC immensely, as eyes that will be 60 yrs old in July see things different now. However, this is not the kind of year that they eat up with big, classic storms. That is not to say they won't do great. It is to say I will not be looking at them as some kind of rival, but advising you on what I see to give you the greatest advantage.
I'm back for another year. I'm excited to say that there are now 3 weather stations on platforms in my field (western GOM). Thank you weatherboyy for the above post. Good stuff there. Ndg, Dylan, Sky, Zack, nolasim, cycoleye, weatherman, and the rest of you guys... thank you for the education I've gleaned off of you guys the past few years. This is the first and last off-topic post for this year. Just wanted to say thanks. Looking forward to 2015.
This winter has been very warm and mild 130 miles offshore, and I've never seen anything like these 7 day rain events we're having this spring. I swear we got something like 5 pulses out of one low a week or so ago. The platform I was on was struck by lightning 3 times in 3 days and we're pretty sure we were hit by a tornadic waterspout one morning about 4am. I woke up to the sound of lightning that somehow shut in the platform. So I had sirens, lightning, and very very loud wind-noise for about 20 minutes. Pretty intense. Thought maybe I went to sleep and woke up in Kansas.
This may have its own thread fairly soon, all models now show development of at least a subtropical system by the middle to the end of next week. GEM/CMC as always is the most aggressive with the system with the Euro coming in close, both of them show a Carolinas landfall on their runs last night.
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6