STILL SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE TIMING OF FEATURES BETWEEN MODELS. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED. SUNDAY AND PART OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LIKELY TO INCREASE ENOUGH...TO 500-1000 J/KG...FOR AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING MARDI GRAS PARADES TO BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH 40-45 KNOT WINDS NEAR 850 MB EXPECTED.
ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT 12 HOURS FROM YESTERDAY MORNINGS SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD HAVE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 09Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ONE THING THAT IS VERY EVIDENT IN MODELS AT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR DUMP IS EXPECTED. COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY JANUARY FROM THE LOOKS OF THINGS. PRESENTS A COUPLE OF FORECAST QUESTIONS. FIRST...WILL PRECIPITATION MOVE OUT BEFORE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. CURRENT FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON PRECIPITATION DEPARTING BEFORE DEEPEST COLD AIR ARRIVES. WILL NOT MENTION SNOW FLURRIES EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES OUT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS FROM WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA. ANY MOISTURE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE CONTINUES WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS CHILLY AS THEY DID EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH PAST 60. MONDAY A LITTLE MILDER...BUT IF CLOUDS MOVE IN TOO EARLY...GFS TEMPERATURE SOLUTION WOULD BE BETTER THAN ECMWF. TRENDING WARM FOR NOW. TUESDAY HIGHS LIKELY TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...WEDNESDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES STAY STEADY OR FALL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IF MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE BALLPARK...FREEZE/HARD FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ON THURSDAY MORNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE NEGATIVELY BIASED BY CLIMATOLOGY A BIT NEXT THURSDAY...WARMING THINGS A LITTLE TOO QUICK.
LEAD BUYER'S AGENT - BWL Group of Keller Williams, Visit my site at www.guidryrealty.com and like us on FB @bwlgrouprealestateteam
CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11
NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member President | Director of Operations - Gulf Coast Weather
Post by lsuhurricane on Feb 12, 2015 13:33:56 GMT -6
Latest hi-res Euro operational model paints snow from a line pointing from Houston across the La/miss border. The ensembles still paint pretty decent snow probabilities for all of South LA at a 30-40% rate. Seems to be outlier with the Canadian and GFS trending further north with winter precip
SKYSUMMITPresident | Director of OperationsAdministrator
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE DELTA AREAS/82 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY..BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EVENT IN THOSE AREAS...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...AS THE LOW PASSES AND A DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE REGION...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6