STILL SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE TIMING OF FEATURES BETWEEN MODELS. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED. SUNDAY AND PART OF MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LIKELY TO INCREASE ENOUGH...TO 500-1000 J/KG...FOR AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING MARDI GRAS PARADES TO BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTED. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ZERO...ESPECIALLY WITH 40-45 KNOT WINDS NEAR 850 MB EXPECTED.
ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT 12 HOURS FROM YESTERDAY MORNINGS SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD HAVE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 09Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ONE THING THAT IS VERY EVIDENT IN MODELS AT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR DUMP IS EXPECTED. COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE EARLY JANUARY FROM THE LOOKS OF THINGS. PRESENTS A COUPLE OF FORECAST QUESTIONS. FIRST...WILL PRECIPITATION MOVE OUT BEFORE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. CURRENT FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON PRECIPITATION DEPARTING BEFORE DEEPEST COLD AIR ARRIVES. WILL NOT MENTION SNOW FLURRIES EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES OUT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW REPORTS FROM WITHIN THE LOCAL AREA. ANY MOISTURE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE CONTINUES WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS CHILLY AS THEY DID EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH PAST 60. MONDAY A LITTLE MILDER...BUT IF CLOUDS MOVE IN TOO EARLY...GFS TEMPERATURE SOLUTION WOULD BE BETTER THAN ECMWF. TRENDING WARM FOR NOW. TUESDAY HIGHS LIKELY TO BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...WEDNESDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES STAY STEADY OR FALL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IF MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE BALLPARK...FREEZE/HARD FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ON THURSDAY MORNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE NEGATIVELY BIASED BY CLIMATOLOGY A BIT NEXT THURSDAY...WARMING THINGS A LITTLE TOO QUICK.
CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11 NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member President | Director of Operations - StormCast
Post by lsuhurricane on Feb 12, 2015 13:33:56 GMT -6
Latest hi-res Euro operational model paints snow from a line pointing from Houston across the La/miss border. The ensembles still paint pretty decent snow probabilities for all of South LA at a 30-40% rate. Seems to be outlier with the Canadian and GFS trending further north with winter precip
SKYSUMMITPresident | Director of OperationsAdministrator
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE DELTA AREAS/82 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY..BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EVENT IN THOSE AREAS...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO...AS THE LOW PASSES AND A DEEP TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE REGION...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
coffeecups: Just like that S word, whenever something is not hyped, then it will probably happen.
May 26, 2017 13:52:25 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I'm thinking this hurricane season will keep us a little busy. Nothing scientific, but just the idea that it really hasn't been hyped that much.
May 23, 2017 21:01:18 GMT -6
coffeecups: Guess I better take the sandbags!
May 23, 2017 14:31:18 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Sandbags and squirt cheese
May 22, 2017 20:46:04 GMT -6
coffeecups: Only a week and a half until tropical season!
May 20, 2017 11:12:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: I remember when the temps for May got into the 90's.
May 19, 2017 21:39:50 GMT -6
coffeecups: For the month of May, this weather has been more like April (except for the rain).
May 19, 2017 21:38:52 GMT -6
PinkFreud: No offense to whomever keeps changing the look of this forum, but this white theme is driving me crazy. What happened to the nice blues and grays?
May 17, 2017 23:51:41 GMT -6
coffeecups: That 'some rain on Friday' became a tornado about 3 miles away (as the crow flies). What a surprise! Glad I didn't have any flooding!
May 14, 2017 10:47:58 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, other than maybe some rain on Friday, we may be in a dry stretch.
May 6, 2017 10:08:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Thanks Sky, looks like good weather for me.
May 5, 2017 21:03:01 GMT -6
coffeecups: I AM very fortunate that I didn't flood last night.
May 4, 2017 12:37:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mother Mary took care of my property again. Even the cat's food and water were by the door instead of floating to the drain. AMAZING!
May 4, 2017 12:35:23 GMT -6
coffeecups: Good to hear from you Sky. Is anyone else here??????
May 1, 2017 21:22:36 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Actually Coffee..I haven't been around that much either. At least not nearly as much as I used to. Work has been extremely busy! It's a busy busy time in real estate
Apr 30, 2017 21:06:22 GMT -6
coffeecups: Anyone here besides me and Sky?
Apr 27, 2017 8:34:33 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6