Let's throw out our predictions for this season and look back at who is most correct
Named Storms:12 Hurricanes: 7 Major: 2
I'm thinking we will have a quick start to the season with our first storm or two (aside from this disturbance we are watching now) in June, with activity dying down until August when things start to ramp up.
My landfall risk areas would be below (Red-High, Orange-Medium, Yellow-Low)
Post by SCOT PILIE' on May 13, 2015 20:32:08 GMT -6
Here's what I'm thinking. Warmer than average SSTs closer to the United States along with the potential for periods of below average wind shear in the Central-Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas region may lead to an increased risk for tropical development in these areas. These development regions also lie close to the U.S., which would tie into a greater risk for landfalls in the southeast United States.
I'm saying: 10-11 Named Systems 4-5 Hurricanes 1-2 Major Hurricanes
I'll post some thoughts on the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season when I get a chance. But one thing for now... The developing El Niño is going to get ridiculous by this summer, with both the ECMWF and CFS showing SST anomalies at 5C + above normal in the equtorial pacific by the critical ASO period. Interestingly enough, this is looking like a Madoki event, with the highest SSTA's focussed in the central Pacific, so I really don't know how this will effect things for hurricane season, much less next winter. But you better believe it will!
I'll do sown research and see if I can find anything on super Madoki El Niño events and how it effects our weather.
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6