October 25ish is really, really late in the season for north and west Gulf storms, fully tropical or not, but it's not unprecedented. Just rare. I know one thing, this dry weather sucks, and it's causing me lots trouble. I hope we do get some decent rains. I don't care what it comes from really as long as it's not torrential and will alleviate this drought.
I just want the rain because we need it bad. I know it won't be fully tropical as the sheer is way too strong. And with the temps only reaching the 70's all week will really start to cool off the northern Gulf.
Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Oct 15, 2015 21:12:38 GMT -6
And the way its looking if this "system" does not materialize, not holding my breath, it will be at least two more weeks without so much of a chance of rain. Thankfully it wasn't like this back in July and August.
Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 16, 2015 10:55:19 GMT -6
12Z GFS develops some type of storm near the central TX coast. Then scoots it north bringing that feeder band across the entire state of LA leading to some great rainfall totals. This is all NEXT weekend.
Whether this is tropical or not makes little difference. The entire storm will be sheared with all of the bad weather well to the east of the circulation center.
Post by thibodauxwx on Oct 16, 2015 14:20:13 GMT -6
this is a write-up by Larry Cosgrove about 30 minutes ago, concerning next weekend, I am adding the pictures he refers to also,
Update on storm scenario for October 23 - 26....
1) The ECMWF still has the strongest definition of a tropical cyclone, possibly in the neighborhood of a Category 2 hurricane. GGEM panels are close to the European depiction, but far faster in forward speed, taking teh storm into NC by October 26. The GFS is weaker with a more western track, but shows more interaction with an upper air disturbance (item A) across the Desert and Intermountain Regions. Still, the American equation illustrates a tropical storm, so all three of the main operational models have a named cyclone in either TX or LA within 9 days.
2) I noticed that the European scheme took a more westward track, showing the 500MB disturbance in the West acting as a steering guide rather than a merge/phase type. So even though there are still disjuncture in timing and precipitation area, confidence is growing on the solution even though it lies more than a week away.
3) My instinct on this feature is that the ultimate track will be into SE TX, then on into middle Appalachia and the Delmarva Peninsula. I am not yet convinced of wind impacts, but suspect that a name will be achieved. More and more, I can see an issue arising where locations that have been very dry recently will invert to a wet period. Kind of the reverse of what transpired in June.
4) The analog forecasts support a transition to a warm West vs. cool Central and East alignment in the longer term, while the ensemble groups show the exact opposite effect. If a named storm does develop and undergoes a full phase and extratropical transition, the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods will feel much more like late October and early November, and far different from the hyper-warm outlook east of the Rocky Mountains shown by the ECMWF, GFS, and GGEM panels.
I of course will have a full write-up and depiction in the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter tomorrow evening.
I guess because we seen it so many times and nothing happened. I personally don't think it will be anything more than a rain event. Sheer crazy strong and high temps cooling into the 70's for most of the week, should keep anything at bay.
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6