October 25ish is really, really late in the season for north and west Gulf storms, fully tropical or not, but it's not unprecedented. Just rare. I know one thing, this dry weather sucks, and it's causing me lots trouble. I hope we do get some decent rains. I don't care what it comes from really as long as it's not torrential and will alleviate this drought.
I just want the rain because we need it bad. I know it won't be fully tropical as the sheer is way too strong. And with the temps only reaching the 70's all week will really start to cool off the northern Gulf.
Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Oct 15, 2015 21:12:38 GMT -6
And the way its looking if this "system" does not materialize, not holding my breath, it will be at least two more weeks without so much of a chance of rain. Thankfully it wasn't like this back in July and August.
Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 16, 2015 10:55:19 GMT -6
12Z GFS develops some type of storm near the central TX coast. Then scoots it north bringing that feeder band across the entire state of LA leading to some great rainfall totals. This is all NEXT weekend.
Whether this is tropical or not makes little difference. The entire storm will be sheared with all of the bad weather well to the east of the circulation center.
Post by thibodauxwx on Oct 16, 2015 14:20:13 GMT -6
this is a write-up by Larry Cosgrove about 30 minutes ago, concerning next weekend, I am adding the pictures he refers to also,
Update on storm scenario for October 23 - 26....
1) The ECMWF still has the strongest definition of a tropical cyclone, possibly in the neighborhood of a Category 2 hurricane. GGEM panels are close to the European depiction, but far faster in forward speed, taking teh storm into NC by October 26. The GFS is weaker with a more western track, but shows more interaction with an upper air disturbance (item A) across the Desert and Intermountain Regions. Still, the American equation illustrates a tropical storm, so all three of the main operational models have a named cyclone in either TX or LA within 9 days.
2) I noticed that the European scheme took a more westward track, showing the 500MB disturbance in the West acting as a steering guide rather than a merge/phase type. So even though there are still disjuncture in timing and precipitation area, confidence is growing on the solution even though it lies more than a week away.
3) My instinct on this feature is that the ultimate track will be into SE TX, then on into middle Appalachia and the Delmarva Peninsula. I am not yet convinced of wind impacts, but suspect that a name will be achieved. More and more, I can see an issue arising where locations that have been very dry recently will invert to a wet period. Kind of the reverse of what transpired in June.
4) The analog forecasts support a transition to a warm West vs. cool Central and East alignment in the longer term, while the ensemble groups show the exact opposite effect. If a named storm does develop and undergoes a full phase and extratropical transition, the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods will feel much more like late October and early November, and far different from the hyper-warm outlook east of the Rocky Mountains shown by the ECMWF, GFS, and GGEM panels.
I of course will have a full write-up and depiction in the WEATHERAmerica Newsletter tomorrow evening.
I guess because we seen it so many times and nothing happened. I personally don't think it will be anything more than a rain event. Sheer crazy strong and high temps cooling into the 70's for most of the week, should keep anything at bay.
coffeecups: Just like that S word, whenever something is not hyped, then it will probably happen.
May 26, 2017 13:52:25 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I'm thinking this hurricane season will keep us a little busy. Nothing scientific, but just the idea that it really hasn't been hyped that much.
May 23, 2017 21:01:18 GMT -6
coffeecups: Guess I better take the sandbags!
May 23, 2017 14:31:18 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Sandbags and squirt cheese
May 22, 2017 20:46:04 GMT -6
coffeecups: Only a week and a half until tropical season!
May 20, 2017 11:12:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: I remember when the temps for May got into the 90's.
May 19, 2017 21:39:50 GMT -6
coffeecups: For the month of May, this weather has been more like April (except for the rain).
May 19, 2017 21:38:52 GMT -6
PinkFreud: No offense to whomever keeps changing the look of this forum, but this white theme is driving me crazy. What happened to the nice blues and grays?
May 17, 2017 23:51:41 GMT -6
coffeecups: That 'some rain on Friday' became a tornado about 3 miles away (as the crow flies). What a surprise! Glad I didn't have any flooding!
May 14, 2017 10:47:58 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, other than maybe some rain on Friday, we may be in a dry stretch.
May 6, 2017 10:08:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Thanks Sky, looks like good weather for me.
May 5, 2017 21:03:01 GMT -6
coffeecups: I AM very fortunate that I didn't flood last night.
May 4, 2017 12:37:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mother Mary took care of my property again. Even the cat's food and water were by the door instead of floating to the drain. AMAZING!
May 4, 2017 12:35:23 GMT -6
coffeecups: Good to hear from you Sky. Is anyone else here??????
May 1, 2017 21:22:36 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Actually Coffee..I haven't been around that much either. At least not nearly as much as I used to. Work has been extremely busy! It's a busy busy time in real estate
Apr 30, 2017 21:06:22 GMT -6
coffeecups: Anyone here besides me and Sky?
Apr 27, 2017 8:34:33 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6