The 0z GFS is just NASTY! It is the El Nino winter weather we have been waiting for since November.
The GFS shows the cold front that is currently to our south, moving back north as a warm front tomorrow. Meanwhile, the first of a series of shortwave troughs rotating around a positively tilted longwave trough over the Rockies will begin to effect our weather on Wednesday with a shield of rain. The first round of showers ends by late Wednesday night, with a break in the rain until New Years Eve night. The GFS then shows the next disturbance moving in Thursday night with rain engulfing the area south to north as New Years eve night. While this is going on, a reinforcing shot of shallow cold air advects into the area.
The 0z GFS show temperatures hovering in the 40's for the majority of SE Louisiana on Friday and Saturday as the train of disturbances trigger numerous showers for our area. It doesn't appear to be a flooding event by any means though with rainfall totals through Sunday totaling 1-3 inches of rain on the South Shore and 1-2 inches on the North Shore. But if your doing anything outside after tomorrow, it looks downright miserable.
Good news at least in my opinion is that it appears the AO may begin to dropdown pretty well. Still have to see if it really does as forecast. If so, then any effects here down south will around the middle of January about when we would want. Just need to keep the STJ active.
What? You're going to another site for winter forecast fantasies? Shame on you, lol ;)
You know this guy likes to blow it out of proportion when the jet stream graphics he draws is nothing close to what the jet stream will look like this weekend, he has the polar jet stream all the way down to the gulf coast when is only the subtropical jet stream in your neck of the woods lol.
The most recent runs of the Canadian and European ensemble packages show potential for cross-polar flow and a Siberian intrusion, as well as the threat for a significant, or worse, winter storm affecting Texas, the Old South, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. Cold air makes its first meaningful push January 6-8; the chance for widespread snow and ice (maybe rain thunder along the coastlines) is targeted for January 10-14. Given the impressive stratospheric warming event and inputs from tropical forcing, I suspect this tendency for widespread cold and increased frozen precipitation is going to be around for a long while.
coffeecups: Just like that S word, whenever something is not hyped, then it will probably happen.
May 26, 2017 13:52:25 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I'm thinking this hurricane season will keep us a little busy. Nothing scientific, but just the idea that it really hasn't been hyped that much.
May 23, 2017 21:01:18 GMT -6
coffeecups: Guess I better take the sandbags!
May 23, 2017 14:31:18 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Sandbags and squirt cheese
May 22, 2017 20:46:04 GMT -6
coffeecups: Only a week and a half until tropical season!
May 20, 2017 11:12:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: I remember when the temps for May got into the 90's.
May 19, 2017 21:39:50 GMT -6
coffeecups: For the month of May, this weather has been more like April (except for the rain).
May 19, 2017 21:38:52 GMT -6
PinkFreud: No offense to whomever keeps changing the look of this forum, but this white theme is driving me crazy. What happened to the nice blues and grays?
May 17, 2017 23:51:41 GMT -6
coffeecups: That 'some rain on Friday' became a tornado about 3 miles away (as the crow flies). What a surprise! Glad I didn't have any flooding!
May 14, 2017 10:47:58 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, other than maybe some rain on Friday, we may be in a dry stretch.
May 6, 2017 10:08:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Thanks Sky, looks like good weather for me.
May 5, 2017 21:03:01 GMT -6
coffeecups: I AM very fortunate that I didn't flood last night.
May 4, 2017 12:37:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mother Mary took care of my property again. Even the cat's food and water were by the door instead of floating to the drain. AMAZING!
May 4, 2017 12:35:23 GMT -6
coffeecups: Good to hear from you Sky. Is anyone else here??????
May 1, 2017 21:22:36 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Actually Coffee..I haven't been around that much either. At least not nearly as much as I used to. Work has been extremely busy! It's a busy busy time in real estate
Apr 30, 2017 21:06:22 GMT -6
coffeecups: Anyone here besides me and Sky?
Apr 27, 2017 8:34:33 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6