Yes, there is a good reason why I chose a snowy/icy greeting card for the start of 2016. I see a major change in the weather pattern coming starting next week, culminating in what looks to be two important winter storms and immense Arctic intrusions setting up after January 10 (I will discuss details of the storm tracks and upper air features later today or tomorrow).
Still not January yet. IMO, the AO needs to go negative as it is forecasted to do and tank, along with other teleconnections. It takes time for all of the physics to work to bring the cold air down. Cold air is heavy and it just does not work as fast as models want it too. Still just because all of the teleconnections are favorable for cold air, we still have other factors such as the El Nino and other climate features that could inhibit cold air. Remember the 1050+ plus highs last year that did not bring major cold. We cannot even get fantasy wintry weather in the GFS long range.
Last Edit: Dec 31, 2015 11:21:54 GMT -6 by kennethb
After looking at the forecast model guidance from last night and today, everything is really starting to come together.
1) The first intrusion of Arctic air comes next week for the eastern U.S. As expected, temperatures will swing back and forth a while, but that's expected early on with this transition. Still, it's going to feel much colder simply because it's been so warm in December.
2) The models are finally starting to pick up on the southern winter storm I've been talking about. The period to watch will be right after the 10th. Models will be all over the place with details, BUT I do like for models to pick up on at least something. The timeframe is about right, so everything is going as expected. In the meantime, there will be other systems to watch before that date.
3) Forecast models also are calling for a major Arctic plunge mid-month right after the winter storm moves through. We'll still be in the midst of a pattern transition so a lot of details are going to have to be ironed out with that.
4) I know I just talked a lot about the forecast models, but we're getting in the period where it's good for the models to start 'seeing' what has been predicted by Firsthand Weather for a while now. Details (e.g. who gets what) really aren't important this far it. The model guidance will change on exact details A LOT, but that's really not that big of a deal right now.
I plan on posting a big article on all of this either tomorrow or on the 2nd. I'll let you know!
Just in from Larry Cosgrove. My question is what is the Old South?:
While some in the Midwest and Northeast may be complaining about the current reversal in temperatures (two brief incursions of Arctic air that should exit by next Wednesday), I suspect that shock will set in when viewing likely weather options after January 8.
Yes, the December warmer-than-you-can-believe pattern is gone. And if you can believe the ECMWF and GGEM model suites (which I certainly do), then what transpires in the second 2/3 of January will surely be upsetting. Much colder air will flow, occasionally in cross-polar Siberian fashion, into the lower 48 states to the right of the Continental Divide.
A stratospheric warming event (which the European and Canadian series believe will last a while), an impressive surge of energy from the Madden-Julian Oscillation into both the polar westerlies and subtropical jet stream, and the formation of a massive -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO blocking signature will help drop the cold air into very low latitudes. At the same time, the active storm track will create problems in the way of both liquid and frozen precipitation ina belt from the lower/middle Great Plains through the Old South and along the East Coast.
You can see the various elements very well by viewing the GOES WEST and Himawari 8 satellite images. My concern here is that while storm #1 (January 10-14) gives only minor amounts of ice and snow to the Interstate 95 corridor, #2 (January 17-21; see it southwest of the Aleutian Islands) may take a path from S TX to FL and then toward Nova Scotia. So while the first disturbance brings the snow line into Appalachia and the Mid-South, the second impulse has a chance to deliver wintry weather into the Interstate 20 cities (DFW to ATL) as well as highly populated areas closer to the Atlantic shoreline.
I think that this 500MB longwave pattern will stay with us through February and the first 2/3 of March (along the lines of the CanSIPS model output). I have placed speculative high and low pressure center points on the 500MB height anomaly maps as a guide to the possible anticyclone positions and storm tracks.
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6