Post by SCOT PILIE' on Apr 4, 2016 16:08:29 GMT -6
One of numerous factors that may affect this upcoming hurricane season. Sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and MDR 'Main Development Region' of the tropical Atlantic are all trending warmer than average. Also, note the exceptional warming of sea surface temperatures in the MDR & Eastern Tropical Atlantic compared to this time last year. This could provide added fuel for Cape Verde easterly waves as they trek across the Atlantic. I'm in the process of writing my full preseason hurricane season analysis, and I will post the link here when I am finished!
Also....Excited to announce to you all that I will be moving back to Louisiana this upcoming May to Lafayette as one of the new on-air broadcast meteorologists at KLAF Acadiana News!! So, I will be able to post a lot more on here down the road for this upcoming hurricane season. Can't wait to work with you guys. GulfCoastWx has one of the best collection of locals, meteorologists, & weather fanatics in the country!
Despite the fact that ENSO will most likely crash into La Nina by the critical ASO period, I'm still skeptical. I'm still seeing some strong signals that would prevent the Atlantic from having a high ACE season, like Mr. Bastardi is forecasting.
The #1 thing that really is bothering me is the fact that both the CFS and ECMWF are showing significant subsidence across the Atlantic Basin. Something that I've noticed is that despite much of the Atlantic Basin being warmer than normal, the other tropical basins will be too, and will be directly competing with our basin. If this holds true, it is a pretty good indicator to me that there will be a limit on activity in the Atlantic Basin.
Obviously, you can say the "only takes one!" cliche, or you could argue it doesn't matter if the we only have a "normal" amount of activity, but its all in the western part of the basin. But right now there are still things that leave me skeptical about just how active this season will be.
Below are the CFS and ECMWF, which both show substantial subsidence across the Atlantic Basin during the active period of Hurricane Season:
Post by weatherboyy on Apr 8, 2016 14:56:54 GMT -6
wxman57 » Fri Apr 08, 2016 8:00 am by storm 2k
The April ECMWF long-range tropical forecast charts are in. Looks like the EC is going with about 11 additional named storms with 5 of them being hurricanes. ACE 80% of normal. Generally high pressure dominating the tropics, but lower than last year in the Gulf. Definitely more rainfall in the Caribbean/Gulf than last season. Quite hostile east of the Caribbean. I think we really have to watch the western Caribbean & Gulf this season
Post by SCOT PILIE' on Apr 25, 2016 15:45:27 GMT -6
Major cooling in the sea-surface temperatures over the past 7-14 days across the east-central equatorial Pacific, particularly in the Nino 1 & 2 Region located off the the coast of south America like NDG mentioned. Also, appears increasingly likely that La Nina conditions will develop by late summer, which will definitely play a role in the Atlantic hurricane season.
Like NDG mentioned, a cooler Nino 1 & 2 region can play a role in increasing convergence in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which would increase the likelihood of some 'homebrew' development in these regions. Not to mention GOM & Caribbean SSTs are already warmer 2-3 degrees warmer than average & several south-central Gulf of Mexico buoys are already nearing 80 degrees!
Only 36 days until the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season!
^^^^Interesting that the long range CFSv2 weekly forecast for the 3rd week of May is showing lower MSLPs for the western basin, wetter than average conditions and below average windshear. Along with warm SSTs and a cooling Nino 1+2 & Nino 3 it looks like a perfect recipe for some early develpment.
Post by SCOT PILIE' on May 2, 2016 10:05:03 GMT -6
After a major cool down in sea-surface temperatures in Mid April in the MDR 'Main Development Region' in the tropical Atlantic, SST's have rebounded big time. SSTs now trending 2-5 degrees F above average. Will be interesting to see how they trend over the next several months.
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6