(Ecmwf)European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This model runs to 7 days and provides data at 24 hour intervals for sea level pressure, 850 mb winds and temperatures and 500 mb heights. It is usually a confidence model
All of my post, unless stated otherwise are opinionated and are in no way an official forecast.
The 12Z Euro and Canadian models are completely opposite of the 12Z GFS. The Euro particularly raises an eyebrow when looking ahead to next weekend. We know that a strong Canadian front will sweep across the Lone Star State on Tuesday with much chillier temperature late next week. The Euro suggests two cold upper air disturbances passing over our Region after the cold air is in place. Typically in early February IF we can get and shortwave passing over cold air at the surface, interesting things can develop. Looks like a long week of watching the various computer schemes to see if this is a mirage or a real potential.
The 12z ECMWF and CMC are interesting. But are not cold enough for a Gulf Coast winter storm around Mardi Gras at this time. The GFS however, shows a brutal arctic cold outbreak with a hard freeze for our area.
Post by HarahanTim on Jan 31, 2016 18:27:45 GMT -6
As Zack mentioned above, the 12z GFS dropped the moisture. The 18z, brought some of it back, early in the day, but not as much as earlier runs were showing. Hopefully, as we approach 7 days out, we start getting some consistency.
The last two GFS runs, continue to keep Mardi Gras in the clear, but chilly. Last night's run, has the gulf low passing far SE in the gulf on Sunday, missing the central gulf coast. This morning's run, not as parade friendly, as it will give us a wet day Sunday. To be continued!
The 12z GFS forecast for Bacchus: Temperatures in the mid 40's, rain, and gusty. Yuck!
We just can't seem to get cold enough for anything fun!
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6