Keeping an eye on Pouch 21L (the wave that's already left the coast which the Euro originally showed as a low-riding storm). Models seem to be slowly deciding that this will not get totally shredded /elongated between Fiona and 22L. The latest Euro tracks a distinct area of vorticity across the MDR and into the northern Lesser Antilles. The GFS has slowly trended more defined / separated with this wave, but is currently the weakest solution. Both of these models had their ensemble support for this wave increase at 00z.
00z CMC and 00z UKMET both develop this into a tropical cyclone.
A quick rundown of the overnight model runs for 21L:
Development camp: UKMET, Canadian, GFS Ensembles, Euro ensembles (moderate support), FIM-9, NAVGEM, HWRF, GFDL.
Non-Development camp: GFS, Euro.
That's a classic setup ;) .
Joe Bastardi discusses 21L in his latest video, saying it's the one to watch for potential land impact. Something he pointed out that I hadn't noticed when looking at the Euro ensembles is that the control run actually brings this all the way into the Gulf as a wave before developing into a broad cyclone off the Texas Coast.
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.1
A tropical wave located about 300 miles southwest of Cabo Verde Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days while the system moves westward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
coffeecups: Only a week and a half until tropical season!
May 20, 2017 11:12:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: I remember when the temps for May got into the 90's.
May 19, 2017 21:39:50 GMT -6
coffeecups: For the month of May, this weather has been more like April (except for the rain).
May 19, 2017 21:38:52 GMT -6
PinkFreud: No offense to whomever keeps changing the look of this forum, but this white theme is driving me crazy. What happened to the nice blues and grays?
May 17, 2017 23:51:41 GMT -6
coffeecups: That 'some rain on Friday' became a tornado about 3 miles away (as the crow flies). What a surprise! Glad I didn't have any flooding!
May 14, 2017 10:47:58 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, other than maybe some rain on Friday, we may be in a dry stretch.
May 6, 2017 10:08:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Thanks Sky, looks like good weather for me.
May 5, 2017 21:03:01 GMT -6
coffeecups: I AM very fortunate that I didn't flood last night.
May 4, 2017 12:37:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mother Mary took care of my property again. Even the cat's food and water were by the door instead of floating to the drain. AMAZING!
May 4, 2017 12:35:23 GMT -6
coffeecups: Good to hear from you Sky. Is anyone else here??????
May 1, 2017 21:22:36 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Actually Coffee..I haven't been around that much either. At least not nearly as much as I used to. Work has been extremely busy! It's a busy busy time in real estate
Apr 30, 2017 21:06:22 GMT -6
coffeecups: Anyone here besides me and Sky?
Apr 27, 2017 8:34:33 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6