Keeping an eye on Pouch 21L (the wave that's already left the coast which the Euro originally showed as a low-riding storm). Models seem to be slowly deciding that this will not get totally shredded /elongated between Fiona and 22L. The latest Euro tracks a distinct area of vorticity across the MDR and into the northern Lesser Antilles. The GFS has slowly trended more defined / separated with this wave, but is currently the weakest solution. Both of these models had their ensemble support for this wave increase at 00z.
00z CMC and 00z UKMET both develop this into a tropical cyclone.
A quick rundown of the overnight model runs for 21L:
Development camp: UKMET, Canadian, GFS Ensembles, Euro ensembles (moderate support), FIM-9, NAVGEM, HWRF, GFDL.
Non-Development camp: GFS, Euro.
That's a classic setup ;) .
Joe Bastardi discusses 21L in his latest video, saying it's the one to watch for potential land impact. Something he pointed out that I hadn't noticed when looking at the Euro ensembles is that the control run actually brings this all the way into the Gulf as a wave before developing into a broad cyclone off the Texas Coast.
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.1
A tropical wave located about 300 miles southwest of Cabo Verde Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next several days while the system moves westward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6