Humm I don't like this. I know 2 weeks out a lot of changes in track etc will change, but this time of year if something did develop, it would possibly send it in the direction of me in Tampa bay.
That's exactly what the 06z GFS did...sent it to the Tampa area. The 12z that just came out made it do a small loopty loop in the northwest Caribbean, then it moved northwest clipping the Yucatan and was moving northwest at the end of the run. On both runs, however, it begins coming together as a weak disturbance in the southern Caribbean late this coming weekend.
CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11
NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member President | Director of Operations - StormCast
SKYSUMMITPresident | Director of OperationsAdministrator
I been seeing this mentioned last few days on another site. But I think by mid October the threat to the central Gulf Coast is extremely low. Usually the track ends up going to southwest Florida or Central America.
Post by hurricaner on Oct 11, 2016 14:16:17 GMT -6
Just remember that the reason most storms don't come to the western or central GOM coast is due to the normal upper levels. However the long range 500mb shows an upper low in the extreme SW GOM and the westerlies are up in the central CONUS which makes the steering currents from the SE to the NW at least on the 12Z run of the GFS.
Not sure about temps very far offshore but just offshore/inshore they're running upper 70's early morning and low 80's through midday. One more cold front and they will be in the 60's at night and low 70's midday.
Post by hurricaner on Oct 11, 2016 18:59:04 GMT -6
In the 18Z run a trough bypasses the system (thus the loop and high pressure builds in after the trough.
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SKYSUMMIT: I'm thinking this hurricane season will keep us a little busy. Nothing scientific, but just the idea that it really hasn't been hyped that much.
May 23, 2017 21:01:18 GMT -6
coffeecups: Guess I better take the sandbags!
May 23, 2017 14:31:18 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Sandbags and squirt cheese
May 22, 2017 20:46:04 GMT -6
coffeecups: Only a week and a half until tropical season!
May 20, 2017 11:12:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: I remember when the temps for May got into the 90's.
May 19, 2017 21:39:50 GMT -6
coffeecups: For the month of May, this weather has been more like April (except for the rain).
May 19, 2017 21:38:52 GMT -6
PinkFreud: No offense to whomever keeps changing the look of this forum, but this white theme is driving me crazy. What happened to the nice blues and grays?
May 17, 2017 23:51:41 GMT -6
coffeecups: That 'some rain on Friday' became a tornado about 3 miles away (as the crow flies). What a surprise! Glad I didn't have any flooding!
May 14, 2017 10:47:58 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, other than maybe some rain on Friday, we may be in a dry stretch.
May 6, 2017 10:08:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Thanks Sky, looks like good weather for me.
May 5, 2017 21:03:01 GMT -6
coffeecups: I AM very fortunate that I didn't flood last night.
May 4, 2017 12:37:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mother Mary took care of my property again. Even the cat's food and water were by the door instead of floating to the drain. AMAZING!
May 4, 2017 12:35:23 GMT -6
coffeecups: Good to hear from you Sky. Is anyone else here??????
May 1, 2017 21:22:36 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Actually Coffee..I haven't been around that much either. At least not nearly as much as I used to. Work has been extremely busy! It's a busy busy time in real estate
Apr 30, 2017 21:06:22 GMT -6
coffeecups: Anyone here besides me and Sky?
Apr 27, 2017 8:34:33 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6