Humm I don't like this. I know 2 weeks out a lot of changes in track etc will change, but this time of year if something did develop, it would possibly send it in the direction of me in Tampa bay.
That's exactly what the 06z GFS did...sent it to the Tampa area. The 12z that just came out made it do a small loopty loop in the northwest Caribbean, then it moved northwest clipping the Yucatan and was moving northwest at the end of the run. On both runs, however, it begins coming together as a weak disturbance in the southern Caribbean late this coming weekend.
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I been seeing this mentioned last few days on another site. But I think by mid October the threat to the central Gulf Coast is extremely low. Usually the track ends up going to southwest Florida or Central America.
Post by hurricaner on Oct 11, 2016 14:16:17 GMT -6
Just remember that the reason most storms don't come to the western or central GOM coast is due to the normal upper levels. However the long range 500mb shows an upper low in the extreme SW GOM and the westerlies are up in the central CONUS which makes the steering currents from the SE to the NW at least on the 12Z run of the GFS.
Not sure about temps very far offshore but just offshore/inshore they're running upper 70's early morning and low 80's through midday. One more cold front and they will be in the 60's at night and low 70's midday.
Post by hurricaner on Oct 11, 2016 18:59:04 GMT -6
In the 18Z run a trough bypasses the system (thus the loop and high pressure builds in after the trough.
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coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6