MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST MON NOV 28 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281610Z - 281815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTION -- NOW INCLUDING ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED/VERY SLOW RAMP-UP IN SEVERE/TORNADO RISK MAY WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO EASTERN TEXAS AT THIS TIME...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...A BAND OF CONFLUENCE IS INDICATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER...WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONSHORE... WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA NOW IN THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE (PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS) AS A RESULT.
THOUGH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HEATING (OWING TO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER) SHOULD TEMPER ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION (AND THUS DEGREE OF SEVERE RISK)...ANY THERMODYNAMIC WEAKNESS IS OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR. THE LATEST LAKE CHARLES VWP REVEALS SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW VEERING AND INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 80 KT NEAR 500 MB...ALONG WITH SURFACE TO 1 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT. GIVEN THIS DEGREE OF SHEAR...SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY ACQUIRE ROTATION...AND THUS THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL... ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...SHOULD EVOLVE AS STRONGER STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TIME.
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA EXTREME EAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1105 AM UNTIL 500 PM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD FROM TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NOW FORMING NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. ALSO...A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
SKYSUMMITPresident | Director of OperationsAdministrator
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1232 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016
ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>019-021-TXZ126-138-151-153- 281915- UNION AR-LAFAYETTE AR-MILLER AR-COLUMBIA AR-HEMPSTEAD AR-NEVADA AR- SABINE LA-DE SOTO LA-BIENVILLE LA-OUACHITA LA-BOSSIER LA-LINCOLN LA- JACKSON LA-CADDO LA-WEBSTER LA-CALDWELL LA-WINN LA-NATCHITOCHES LA- UNION LA-RED RIVER LA-CLAIBORNE LA-PANOLA TX-HARRISON TX-SHELBY TX- MARION TX- 1232 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEASTERN MILLER...COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN HEMPSTEAD...LAFAYETTE AND UNION COUNTIES...WEBSTER...DE SOTO...UNION...RED RIVER...NORTHERN CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...BIENVILLE...LINCOLN...NORTHERN WINN...NORTHERN NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...CADDO...NORTHERN SABINE...JACKSON AND BOSSIER PARISHES...NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...EASTERN HARRISON...EASTERN MARION AND EASTERN PANOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CST...
AT 1231 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF URBANA TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOGANSPORT. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
SKYSUMMIT: I'm thinking this hurricane season will keep us a little busy. Nothing scientific, but just the idea that it really hasn't been hyped that much.
May 23, 2017 21:01:18 GMT -6
coffeecups: Guess I better take the sandbags!
May 23, 2017 14:31:18 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Sandbags and squirt cheese
May 22, 2017 20:46:04 GMT -6
coffeecups: Only a week and a half until tropical season!
May 20, 2017 11:12:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: I remember when the temps for May got into the 90's.
May 19, 2017 21:39:50 GMT -6
coffeecups: For the month of May, this weather has been more like April (except for the rain).
May 19, 2017 21:38:52 GMT -6
PinkFreud: No offense to whomever keeps changing the look of this forum, but this white theme is driving me crazy. What happened to the nice blues and grays?
May 17, 2017 23:51:41 GMT -6
coffeecups: That 'some rain on Friday' became a tornado about 3 miles away (as the crow flies). What a surprise! Glad I didn't have any flooding!
May 14, 2017 10:47:58 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, other than maybe some rain on Friday, we may be in a dry stretch.
May 6, 2017 10:08:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Thanks Sky, looks like good weather for me.
May 5, 2017 21:03:01 GMT -6
coffeecups: I AM very fortunate that I didn't flood last night.
May 4, 2017 12:37:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mother Mary took care of my property again. Even the cat's food and water were by the door instead of floating to the drain. AMAZING!
May 4, 2017 12:35:23 GMT -6
coffeecups: Good to hear from you Sky. Is anyone else here??????
May 1, 2017 21:22:36 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Actually Coffee..I haven't been around that much either. At least not nearly as much as I used to. Work has been extremely busy! It's a busy busy time in real estate
Apr 30, 2017 21:06:22 GMT -6
coffeecups: Anyone here besides me and Sky?
Apr 27, 2017 8:34:33 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6