MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CST MON NOV 28 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281610Z - 281815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTION -- NOW INCLUDING ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED/VERY SLOW RAMP-UP IN SEVERE/TORNADO RISK MAY WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO EASTERN TEXAS AT THIS TIME...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...A BAND OF CONFLUENCE IS INDICATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER...WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONSHORE... WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA NOW IN THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE (PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS) AS A RESULT.
THOUGH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HEATING (OWING TO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER) SHOULD TEMPER ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION (AND THUS DEGREE OF SEVERE RISK)...ANY THERMODYNAMIC WEAKNESS IS OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR. THE LATEST LAKE CHARLES VWP REVEALS SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW VEERING AND INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 80 KT NEAR 500 MB...ALONG WITH SURFACE TO 1 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT. GIVEN THIS DEGREE OF SHEAR...SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY ACQUIRE ROTATION...AND THUS THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL... ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...SHOULD EVOLVE AS STRONGER STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TIME.
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA EXTREME EAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1105 AM UNTIL 500 PM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD FROM TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NOW FORMING NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. ALSO...A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1232 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016
ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>019-021-TXZ126-138-151-153- 281915- UNION AR-LAFAYETTE AR-MILLER AR-COLUMBIA AR-HEMPSTEAD AR-NEVADA AR- SABINE LA-DE SOTO LA-BIENVILLE LA-OUACHITA LA-BOSSIER LA-LINCOLN LA- JACKSON LA-CADDO LA-WEBSTER LA-CALDWELL LA-WINN LA-NATCHITOCHES LA- UNION LA-RED RIVER LA-CLAIBORNE LA-PANOLA TX-HARRISON TX-SHELBY TX- MARION TX- 1232 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEASTERN MILLER...COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN HEMPSTEAD...LAFAYETTE AND UNION COUNTIES...WEBSTER...DE SOTO...UNION...RED RIVER...NORTHERN CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...BIENVILLE...LINCOLN...NORTHERN WINN...NORTHERN NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...CADDO...NORTHERN SABINE...JACKSON AND BOSSIER PARISHES...NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...EASTERN HARRISON...EASTERN MARION AND EASTERN PANOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CST...
AT 1231 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF URBANA TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOGANSPORT. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6