Post by saintlybraves on Dec 28, 2016 7:29:41 GMT -6
I'm guessing it's not good for Metairie...it seems like the local mets are trying to sidestep the "true" forecast". Some websites are calling for 100% precipitation for Saturday night. What do you guys think is the likely scenario for New Year's Eve?
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2016
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from portions of east Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley, and across portions of southern California and Arizona.
...Synopsis/Discussion... A midlevel wave is forecast to track from the Southwest States to the Central States, while minoring out within confluent flow aloft. A channel of enhanced low-level southerly/southwesterly flow -- related to this disturbance -- will encourage poleward fluxes of Gulf moisture and isentropic ascent from portions of east Texas to the lower MS Valley region. Thunderstorm potential will exist in these areas. However, fairly widespread convection near and off the coast may process richer Gulf moisture/stronger buoyancy that could otherwise extend inland. As such, inflow over inland areas may remain elevated atop a modifying cool dome. Furthermore, effective bulk shear should remain modest. These factors are expected to mitigate thunderstorm intensity, though a few stronger storms may occur off the upper TX and LA coast.
Additionally, ascent preceding a midlevel cyclone well upstream (crossing the Southwest States) may phase with sufficient -- albeit marginal -- moisture/buoyancy in support of isolated thunderstorm potential from portions of southern CA to AZ. Limited instability should preclude severe potential.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 600 PM CST WED DEC 28 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEW YEARS DAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6