We could be in for another round of active weather by the early to mid part of next week. We have moderate confidence in there being some stormy weather, but lower confidence in the timing at this point. Stay tuned...
Would post their graphic but I can't figure out how to post pictures here. Maybe Scott or someone else could help out as well as give additional insight?
Last Edit: Feb 14, 2017 8:32:00 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
SKYSUMMITPresident | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Most of the gulf coast, is now under either a thunderstorm, or marginal risk, for Tuesday.
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST EAST TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible from the eastern half of Texas east to southwestern Alabama Tuesday. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible from the middle Texas coast east to coastal Mississippi.
...Synopsis... A southern-stream upper low over the southern Plains is forecast to shift eastward toward the Arklatex region Day 3/Tuesday, weakening gradually as it begins to become absorbed into the broader northern-stream cyclonic flow field over the eastern U.S. with time. Meanwhile, ridging is forecast to expand over the western states, all resulting in a very high-amplitude flow pattern over the country.
At the surface, a reinforcing/polar cold front is forecast to shift southeast out of Canada across the Great Lakes/Northeast/Midwest region, while a weaker low is progged to track eastward along the western and central Gulf coastal area along a remnant baroclinic zone.
...Southeast TX to southern Mississippi... Mainly elevated showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the portions of the eastern half of TX early in the period, with the convection gradually spreading eastward with time. As a weak surface low shifts northeast and then east along the western and central Gulf coastal areas of TX/LA and eventually southern MS, increasing low-level moisture should eventually yield weak surface-based CAPE, limited overall however by weak lapse rates aloft. Still, it appears that surface-based storms will develop by afternoon across the TX coastal vicinity, and then spread east across southern LA/southern MS during the evening and overnight -- though how far inland any true surface-based instability will evolve remains somewhat uncertain.
Where surface-based storms can develop, low-level and deep-layer shear anticipated across the area will likely be supportive of both mid- and low-level rotation within stronger updrafts. Therefore, some risk for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes is evident -- though still somewhat uncertain at this time. As such -- will introduce a MRGL/5% risk area this forecast, from roughly mid-afternoon through the end of the period.
Last Edit: Feb 12, 2017 6:14:43 GMT -6 by HarahanTim
GCWX Director of Public Relations
SKYSUMMITPresident | Director of OperationsAdministrator
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
A cold front will push through the region tonight. northeast winds may prompt a small craft advisory for coastal waters tonight.
Otherwise...hazardous weather is not anticipated.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
Another cold front is expected to push through the area in the middle of the week. There is a marginal risk of severe storms across the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. The primary threats will be damaging winds, some hail and occasional lightning. A tornado or two can not be ruled out.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed late Tuesday and early Wednesday morning.
CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11
NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member President | Director of Operations - StormCast
Post by Cheshire Cat on Feb 12, 2017 15:23:26 GMT -6
Uh oh, Reed Timmer, now in NE covering the blizzard, mentioned that he is heading for LA in few days. 😳 He said the set-up is good for tornadoes in LA during mid week. _____________________________________ From his Facebook: UPDATE: watching closely the #tornado potential in southwest Louisiana on Tuesday afternoon/evening.. here are forecast 850 mb, surface winds, Td from 4 km NAM at 6 pm Tues. Already in position to chase for AccuWeather
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...AND INCLUDING A SIMILAR GEOGRAPHIC AREA...
...SUMMARY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms will be possible from the eastern half of Texas east to parts of western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday. Scattered strong to locally severe storms will also be possible from parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana during the afternoon, and east across the central Gulf coastal region during the evening/overnight hours.
...Synopsis... With very strong ridging to prevail aloft across a large portion of western North America Day 2/Tuesday, most of the deep moist convective activity will be focused from the parts of the southern Plains east across the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coastal regions. Here, a weakening southern-stream perturbation shifting rapidly east across TX is progged to gradually become absorbed within a larger/northern-stream trough expanding across the eastern U.S. with time.
At the surface, a low initially expected over deep South TX is progged to redevelop northward across southeast TX through midday/early afternoon, and then shift east across the central Gulf coastal area -- along a prior/remnant west-to-east baroclinic zone -- through the end of the period.
...Southeast Texas east across the central Gulf coastal area... Elevated showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing across parts of central and eastern TX at the start of the period, within a zone of fairly strong QG forcing just ahead of the southern-stream short-wave trough moving quickly eastward.
By midday, as a surface low redevelops northward from south TX into the Piney Woods area of east TX, onshore advection of western Gulf moisture combined with some heating will result in gradual/modest destabilization -- aided by some steepening of mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper system. Strong/diffluent flow aloft ahead of system, atop low-level southeast winds near and east of the surface low will yield favorable shear -- both low-level and mid-level -- which should support development of a locally vigorous/rotating updrafts. True surface-based storms will be most likely nearer to the coast, where the more moist/unstable boundary layer is expected, with northward extent of this more favorable low-level environment still a bit uncertain. While hail risk should remain somewhat limited due to marginal instability, a few marginally severe hail events will be possible. Meanwhile, locally damaging winds will be possible -- particularly as storms grow upscale into bands with time, and a few tornadoes will also be possible as convection spreads across southeast TX into southwestern LA through the afternoon and early evening.
During the evening/overnight, dampening of the southern-stream wave in addition to strongest ascent expected atop the still-stable boundary layer into central and northern MS/AL suggest that surface-based storms will become more isolated with eastward extent. However, with the background thermodynamic and kinematic environment still expected to be supportive of rotating storms/isolated tornado risk, will extend the slight risk east to far southwestern portions of the FL panhandle.
SKYSUMMIT: Sandbags and squirt cheese
May 22, 2017 20:46:04 GMT -6
coffeecups: Only a week and a half until tropical season!
May 20, 2017 11:12:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: I remember when the temps for May got into the 90's.
May 19, 2017 21:39:50 GMT -6
coffeecups: For the month of May, this weather has been more like April (except for the rain).
May 19, 2017 21:38:52 GMT -6
PinkFreud: No offense to whomever keeps changing the look of this forum, but this white theme is driving me crazy. What happened to the nice blues and grays?
May 17, 2017 23:51:41 GMT -6
coffeecups: That 'some rain on Friday' became a tornado about 3 miles away (as the crow flies). What a surprise! Glad I didn't have any flooding!
May 14, 2017 10:47:58 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, other than maybe some rain on Friday, we may be in a dry stretch.
May 6, 2017 10:08:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Thanks Sky, looks like good weather for me.
May 5, 2017 21:03:01 GMT -6
coffeecups: I AM very fortunate that I didn't flood last night.
May 4, 2017 12:37:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mother Mary took care of my property again. Even the cat's food and water were by the door instead of floating to the drain. AMAZING!
May 4, 2017 12:35:23 GMT -6
coffeecups: Good to hear from you Sky. Is anyone else here??????
May 1, 2017 21:22:36 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Actually Coffee..I haven't been around that much either. At least not nearly as much as I used to. Work has been extremely busy! It's a busy busy time in real estate
Apr 30, 2017 21:06:22 GMT -6
coffeecups: Anyone here besides me and Sky?
Apr 27, 2017 8:34:33 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6