Mesoscale Discussion 0447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southwest AL...southeast MS...western FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 052029Z - 052300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for some potential of severe-thunderstorm development this afternoon and early evening. While not likely, it is possible that a watch could be issued.
DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus development continues along a weak front analyzed from southeast MS into southeast LA. The air mass east of this boundary is only modestly capped based on the 18Z Slidell sounding, which indicates MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg aided by the inland extension of relatively rich Gulf moisture. Areas of surface heating west of more widespread convection over GA into the FL Panhandle will continue supporting destabilization, while the southern extent of a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Stronger deep ascent will reside well to the north of the Discussion area, and low-level convergence remains weak per observational data. These factors cast considerable doubt regarding the sustenance of deep convection. Regardless, with 50-60 kt of effective shear conditionally supporting organized convective structures/supercells, a conditional severe risk could exist into the early evening. However, confidence in sufficient severe coverage is quite limited at present.
LEAD BUYER'S AGENT - BWL Group of Keller Williams, Visit my site at www.guidryrealty.com and like us on FB @bwlgrouprealestateteam
CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11
NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member President | Director of Operations - Gulf Coast Weather
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6