Hey, I hate to bother y'all but I'll be traveling from SW of Houston on Monday (Wharton) I am kind of trying to decifer your data for tomorrow and Monday to travel to Patterson, La. It doesn't look like a huge window to get home. (The ONLY reason I'm asking is because I have my mom and her cousin with me and I'm about to leave them on the side of a higheay!) :-) Cat 5 relatives!!
Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Apr 2, 2017 0:00:50 GMT -6
Day 2 has an enhanced for southern and central Alabama, Florida panhandle, and central and northern Georgia. I'm on the very southwest edge of that area. Could be a worse forecast I guess. Hoping not anyway.
...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley today and into tonight. A concentrated area of significant wind damage is likely near and north of the I-20 corridor in east Texas and Louisiana. The risk for tornadoes, a few of which may be strong/damaging, will probably maximize near and south of I-20 in Texas and Louisiana, along with the threat for hail.
...Synopsis... A closed mid-level low will evolve into an open wave and move from northern Mexico/Far West TX eastward to the ArkLaTex by early Monday morning. A broad area of surface low pressure over the Rio Grande Valley will consolidate and develop northeast across central TX during the day and be near the OK/AR border at the end of the period. A maritime warm front will advance northward across the northwest Gulf Coast region during the day as a cold front accelerates eastward across central TX during the afternoon and into LA during the overnight.
...Central TX eastward into the lower MS Valley... A multi-hazard, likely multi-scenario forecast with intrinsic complexity/uncertainty is seemingly evident for today into tonight. Late Saturday evening surface analysis and radar imagery show rich low-level moisture over the TX coast with a developing thunderstorm cluster in the middle Rio Grande Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over central TX. Severe gusts/wind damage appears to be the predominate threat with the early-day MCS. As the surface low deepens, a concurrent strong low-level mass response will occur and the development of a 50-kt LLJ by mid morning is expected. Strong low-level moist advection on the nose of the LLJ will be favorable for a continuation of early morning storms as the LLJ's terminus shifts eastward from east-central TX into the ArkLaTex by mid-late afternoon. A concentrated zone of higher probability wind potential may be realized with a potential bowing system as increasing buoyancy (1000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) and strong shear lead to an intense bowing MCS moving from TX into the ArkLaTex.
Coincident with the diurnal heating cycle, free warm sector thunderstorm initiation is likely from east TX into LA on the northern rim of the elevated mixed layer's stronger capping inversion (north of Interstate 10). Persistent south-to-north oriented confluence zones in the warm sector will serve as the genesis areas with gradual thunderstorm/supercell development as stronger updrafts penetrate the LFC---beginning as early as the late morning and through the afternoon. A moderate to very unstable boundary layer (MLCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg) is forecast from eastern parts of TX into LA. Forecast soundings show large hodographs (200-400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) with strong effective shear of at least 50-kt. It seems plausible several supercells may evolve from this activity and pose a threat for tornadoes and large to very large hail. A couple of strong/damaging tornadoes are possible. The latest model guidance suggests thunderstorm coverage will be less generally south of Interstate 10. Nonetheless, models show isolated to widely scattered storms developing perhaps in conjunction with stronger deep forcing for ascent.
During the evening and overnight over the lower MS Valley, storms will likely spread into the region from the west. Increasing moisture/buoyancy as the maritime front advances northward will favor an organized severe storm risk continuing into the region. Thunderstorms within the strong flow fields will conditionally support the possibility for wind damage and tornadoes after dark.
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 441 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017
.STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SUCH THAT SOUTHEAST WINDS REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL CAUSE TIDES TO INCREASE ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES.
LAZ040-050-058-062-064-066>070-072-MSZ080>082-021745- /O.NEW.KLIX.CF.Y.0003.170402T1800Z-170404T0000Z/ ST. TAMMANY-LIVINGSTON-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ORLEANS- UPPER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE- LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD- SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON- 441 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY.
* COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
* TIMING...PEAK TIDES WILL BE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
* IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ACCESS ROADS NEAR TIDAL LAKES...BAYS AND INLETS AS WELL AS THE OPEN COAST OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.
coffeecups: I'm still lurking at the coming weather!
Apr 17, 2017 16:44:08 GMT -6
coffeecups: WOW! My patio was dry when I got home.
Apr 16, 2017 18:22:16 GMT -6
coffeecups: Came home to Harvey from Slidell. Had a little rain here and there. There was no rain in Slidell when I left at 3:30pm. While in NO EAST, I saw where it looked like it was storming around Covington going towards Slidell. Wet but no rain when I got home
Apr 16, 2017 18:21:07 GMT -6
coffeecups: I will eat some strawberries on my cruise in early May---just a few of course, as long as I stay away from my better half.
Apr 13, 2017 20:39:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Yea, had a good bit of strawberries. Did NOT go to the fest though.
Apr 12, 2017 19:48:32 GMT -6
coffeecups: Sky, did you enjoy the strawberries?
Apr 12, 2017 18:43:30 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: yea, we're in a quiet lull right now
Apr 10, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -6
coffeecups: At least with the tropical forecast we have more to go on than fantasy.
Apr 9, 2017 18:00:26 GMT -6
coffeecups: Unfortunately for me, strawberries are a widower maker!
Apr 8, 2017 11:46:43 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man it's gonna be a nice weekend! If you're looking for something to do, head over to the Ponchatoula Strawberry Fest!
Apr 5, 2017 21:35:02 GMT -6
coffeecups: Are you getting like me?
Apr 5, 2017 11:08:26 GMT -6
wsmith0306: Can't believe I've never noticed this before. I must be getting old or blind. or both!
Apr 4, 2017 8:06:37 GMT -6
coffeecups: It felt cool this morning. Very nice weather!!!
Apr 4, 2017 7:13:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Mary protected me again.
Apr 3, 2017 7:18:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: LOL wsmith....it's just a little chat box
Apr 1, 2017 8:53:27 GMT -6
wsmith0306: What's this "shoutbox" thing all about? I'm at work, so I'm whispering right now. Hope that's allowed :).
Mar 30, 2017 12:38:44 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'm hoping that I don't see any 'rare' rain events here.
Mar 29, 2017 7:39:51 GMT -6
coffeecups: ps I guess the memory of that snow is probably the only winter that I will get.
Mar 25, 2017 7:16:52 GMT -6
coffeecups: Somewhere around 1956 and 1958 it snowed so much that I thought I was in a blizzard. Of course I was only a child then, but the memory of that has NOT been met or surpassed.
Mar 25, 2017 7:15:41 GMT -6